The Lula administration in Brazil would like COP30, the first UN climate change conference to take place in the Amazon rainforest, to be a pivotal moment in advancing international cooperation on climate change. It has spent some R$4.7 billion (about £664 million) over the last two years on improvements to the infrastructure of the host city Belém, capital of the state of Pará. Belém is expected to receive 40,000 visitors from 198 countries during the twelve days of the conference between 10 and 21 November 2025. President Lula appointed an experienced climate change negotiator, Ambassador André Aranha Corrêa do Lago, as President of COP30, and his Environment Minister Marina Silva has been heavily involved in the conference preparations.
COP30 comes at a moment that is both propitious and fraught with danger. In 2024 global investments in renewable energy were almost twice those in fossil fuels, signalling that the transition to low-carbon energy systems is well underway (and is financed largely by the private sector). On the other hand, multilateral systems are breaking down, foreign aid budgets have been cut, and the Trump administration in the US has once again pulled out of the 2015 Paris Agreement. Overall, the hopes expressed at COP21 in Paris seem not to have been realized. The increase in the emission of the main greenhouse gases between 2023 and 2024 was the largest on record since 1957, according to the World Meteorological Organization. In 2024 the tropics lost an estimated 6.7 million hectares of primary forest. And the global average temperature in 2024 was the highest on record, according to an analysis by NASA, the US space agency.
Could COP30 help to induce a change of course? Much will be discussed in the 286 events of the conference. Key themes include advances in renewable energy technology, the mobilization of climate finance for low-income countries, the importance of indigenous peoples and local communities to forest and biodiversity conservation, adaptation to climate change, and the need for new, ambitious and credible nationally determined contributions (NDCs), commitments made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. After two COPs in cities associated with the oil and gas industry, there is hope that the “forest COP” can make a difference.
One initiative stands out. The Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), proposed by Brazil in 2023, would be a $125 billion fund to conserve tropical forests worldwide. The idea is to combine $25 billion in contributions from governments with $100 billion from the private sector to establish a fund that spins off as much as $4 billion in interest annually (after what is paid to investors). This money would be transferred to more than 70 TFFF-affiliated countries, which could use it to preserve more than 1 billion hectares of tropical rainforest. The TFFF might represent a concrete step towards the realization of the pledge made at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021 to end tropical deforestation by 2030.
Under the TFFF, 20% of the payments would be earmarked for qualified indigenous people and local communities, rather than governments. An indigenous peoples’ advisory council would have a role in determining the allocation of funds and work with a scientific advisory council that would devise systems for monitoring conservation compliance. According to a concept note published in 2024 by the Finance Ministry and Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change of Brazil, the TFFF would have a robust system of monitoring. This would rely on satellite observation of forests using a standardized technical framework and a single eligibility formula applicable to all countries. The satellite monitoring data used to prepare the reports on each country’s forest management performance would be public and available for independent verification by third parties. Use the buttons below to read more about accountability.
The TFFF is likely to be discussed at the People’s Summit, a meeting of representatives of various social movements scheduled to meet at COP30, and has received support from Juan Carlos Jintiach, the executive director of the Global Alliance for Territorial Communities, a large transnational indigenous rights organisation. President Lula has said that Brazil will donate the first $1 billion to the fund. The Chinese Environment Minister Huang Runquí has endorsed it and the governments of Norway, the UK, Germany, Japan, Canada, the UAE, Saudia Arabia and Kuwait could announce commitments to the fund at COP30.
It is likely that the discussion of the TFFF will produce skeptical criticism. In the past, actual financial transfers have chronically lagged behind pledges made at COPs, although the record has improved in recent years. (The amount currently being discussed is a transfer of $300 billion per year to support climate action in developing countries.) Even if the funds are forthcoming, there would be challenges with regard to the procedures by which funds are disbursed and the methods by which forest conservation is measured. Within Brazil itself, the government’s commitment to leadership on climate change is also sometimes questioned. When Brazil’s environmental agency IBAMA approved a license for the state-controlled oil company Petrobras to drill for oil near the mouth of the Amazon River on 20 October 2025, the representatives of several environmental organizations criticized the decision and argued that it was incompatible with Brazil’s hosting of COP30. In addition, the climate scientist Carlos Nobre, co-chair of the Scientific Panel for the Amazon, claimed that there was no justification for further oil exploration, arguing that the Amazon rainforest is close to a “tipping point” in which forest degradation will accelerate, a point he believes would come when the level of 20% deforestation has been reached (it is about 17% now).
Nevertheless, the TFFF is a relatively new initiative that could provide a litmus test for judging the significance of COP30. A consensus around the TFFF emerging from the conference would be significant. Alternatively, if the TFFF is seen to fail, then all of the criticisms of the COPs that were heard after COP28 and COP29 will be amplified, and arguments about the need for new fora and new mechanisms for inducing cooperation around climate change will be heard again. What happens – and does not happen - in Belém is important and will be closely watched.
Anthony W. Pereira is the Executive Director of the Stone Centre for Latin American Studies at Tulane University, a Visiting Professor at the School of Global Affairs at King’s College London, and a Senior Fellow at Canning House.
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