Just under eight million Bolivians will head to the polls on August 17 to vote for the president, vice president, and all seats in both houses of the legislature (130 Deputies and 36 Senators). If no presidential candidate secures more than 50% of the vote or 40% with a 10% advantage over the rest, a run-off will take place on 19 October 2025 among the two leading contenders. The new president and members of both legislative chambers will all take office on November 8.
Nine presidential candidates were registered by the Bolivian Supreme Electoral Tribunal. The incumbent President Luis Arce (2020-present) withdrew from the race after it became clear that he did not have the popularity needed to sustain the campaign. Meanwhile, the former President Evo Morales (2006-2019) has been barred by the Constitutional Court from seeking a fourth term but remains a key figure in Bolivian politics.
Divisions among the left
The ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party is grappling with internal divisions that are hampering its election chances.
Luis Arce served as Minister of Economy and Public Finance under long-term President Evo Morales between 2006 and 2019. Arce has been the President of Bolivia since November 2020, after a short interregnum under a right-wing government. These offices and Arce’s long-term involvement in the nation’s finances -including the renationalisation of Bolivia’s petroleum industry, increased taxes on the wealthy and agricultural land redistribution- have personally associated him with the country’s worsening economic situation, and have caused the popularity of MAS to plummet. In this context, President Arce has advocated for a unified left-wing front as the only viable path to retain power.
At the same time, Arce’s mentor, turned political rival, and former President Evo Morales has been urging his supporters to express their disapproval of the 2025 electoral process by annulling their votes. Morales has continuously argued that none of the current candidates adequately represent the indigenous peasant movement.
Rising from dire poverty, Evo Morales became the first-ever indigenous president in 2006 and still retains a large following in Bolivia. During his 14-year administration, he removed the restriction on consecutive terms and limits on re-election. However, the Constitutional Court reinstated a two-term limit on the presidency, and Morales was ruled ineligible to run for president. Evo Morales led protests against President Arce, demanding the revocation of some of his unpopular economic policies.
After returning to Bolivia from exile, Morales took refuge in the Chapare coca-growing province, where he is evading an arrest warrant in an ongoing investigation into allegations of sexual impropriety and corruption, which he claims is politically motivated. These divisions within MAS risk splitting their support base, making a centre-left victory more challenging.
Bolivia’s Economy at Risk?
The government’s lack of popularity is fuelled by an ongoing economic crisis. Since 2014, Bolivia’s economy has relied heavily on the state-owned natural gas industry. In recent years, the reserves of natural gas have been dwindling, and the government has accrued increasing debts to fill the gaps in public finances. As the gas has run out, Bolivia’s international trade has dried up, and foreign exchange has slowed significantly.
As a result, the economy is now lacking US dollars, the central bank has no reserves, and inflation is growing. The annual rate of inflation has reached 24% with inflation in June at 38%.
Furthermore, there is growing concern about the advance of mining as the government has looked to the extraction and exploitation of its vast lithium reserves to boost finances and fuel supply.
Late last year, Morales’ supporters used blockades in their protests to prevent his arrest. This combination of economic forces caused shortages in food and fuel, leading to further discontent directed towards the government.
The severity of this crisis has bolstered the appeal of the right’s promise of economic change.
The right’s election to lose?
In opposition to the MAS, businessman and former Minister of Planning Samuel Doria Medina of the National Unity Front (Alianza Unidad) currently leads the polls, followed closely by former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga (2001-2002) of the Free Alliance (Alianza Libre), and Manfred Reyes (Súmate Party) of Autonomy of Bolivia.
Polls released by UNITEL show Doria Medina leading with 21.5% of the vote. The businessman has vowed to get inflation under control by cutting government fuel subsidies. He has also indicated his desire to open Bolivia to international markets and secure a trade deal with President Trump.
Running in a strong second in the polls is Jorge ‘Tuto’ Quiroga. The former-President has set out a 7-pillar governing plan that aims to obtain liquidity from the IMF, reactivate production, and reform the social and judicial systems. He promises to bring Bolivia back into the international scene through economic diplomacy.
While neither Samuel Doria nor Jorge ‘Tuto’ Quiroga surpasses 25% of the vote individually, when their figures are combined, the most likely scenario indicates a plausible rightward shift in Bolivia’s political landscape. While polls in Bolivia have often been inaccurate, current projections suggest this would mark the first runoff election since the adoption of the 2009 Constitution. Scheduled for 19 October, the second round would take place after the Assembly had already been constituted -according to current polling- with a right-wing majority bloc for the first time in 20 years.
One last hope for the left?
After Eva Copa, one of the leftist candidates, withdrew from the race with only 0.4% of voter support, some sectors of the MAS began exploring the possibility of backing Senator Andrónico Rodríguez of the Popular Alliance, who is currently polling ahead of Eduardo del Castillo, former Minister of Government under President Arce.
The mining sector was one of the pillars that enabled MAS to remain in power, alongside the cocaleros (coca farmers). Rural voters account for around 30% of the electorate. Andrónico has also been deeply involved in Bolivia’s cocalero movement and has simultaneously faced criticism for representing a continuation of the Morales legacy. Both have sought to distance themselves from each other. Former president Morales has refused to endorse Andrónico, instead urging his supporters to cast null ballots.
Andrónico, the President of the Senate, aims to unify the left once again, and he, too, has promised to open Bolivia to the world stage. If the centre-left can successfully convince that large sector of the population that they can still be trusted, then they may yet succeed.
Surveys further indicate that undecided voters constitute the largest segment of the electorate, adding an additional layer of uncertainty to the outcome and underscoring the volatility of the current political landscape. It is unclear how large the null and blank votes will be. Voting is mandatory in Bolivia for those over the age of 18 years old, so it will be hard to assess how many of the null votes are in support of Morales. The high proportion of undecided voters could work to the advantage of the left-wing candidate.
Whoever wins the second round of the election on 19 October will need to enforce stringent fiscal discipline in response to the country’s mounting public debt. The new president will need to navigate a likely fragmented Congress and assert themself in key areas. Strategic engagement with international creditors, the implementation of targeted spending cuts, and enhanced transparency in public financial management will be essential to stabilise Bolivia’s economy.