Canning Papers

A political era is ending in Argentina. Over three consecutive four-year presidential terms since 2003, the country has been governed by the Kirchners: starting with the late Néstor Kirchner, who was president in 2003-2007 and was then succeeded then by his wife, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, in 2009 (Néstor died in 2010). During that time, the economy experienced some impressively high growth rates, but since the ending of the commodities boom and the intensification of the government’s interventionist and heterodox economic policies, things have got worse. In particular, Argentina has been dogged in recent years by disputes with its foreign creditors, along with US dollar scarcities, high domestic inflation and stagnant economic growth. General elections are due to be held in October 2015, and this paper looks forward to what might be in store.

After a busy election year in 2014, with general elections in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Colombia, Panama, Brazil and Uruguay, in 2015 all eyes will be on Argentina, where the end of the radical left-wing Kirchner era looks nigh, but Peronism looks set to live on, albeit dressed more moderately.

This report was written when Mexico — the second largest country in Latin America by size of population and economy, a neighbour and partner of the US, one of the world’s top 15 economies, and a member of important interna- tional ‘clubs’ such as the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Devel- opment (OECD), the G20 group of developed economies, and the Pacific Alliance — is on the cusp of major changes.

Companies are like living organisms. They are born, they grow, they shrink, they die, sometimes they go to sleep for a while, sometimes they revive: some split in two and some have children. Not for nothing have their twists and turns been likened to a process of ‘creative destruction’.

This report applies a form of scenario planning to Colombia over the next decade. It notes the strategic and economic importance of the country within Latin America, as the number three both in population size (48.3m in 2013) and by the value of its GDP (US$378.1bn, also in 2013)1.

‘Latin America is the most violent region of the world.’ This has been a fre- quent headline, both in the region and beyond, since April, when the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Unodc) released its most recent (2013) Global Study on Homicide. It was not actually news but it did dovetail with the widespread use of homicide rates as the yardstick of insecurity in Latin America — even though there is no automatic correlation between those rates and the public perception of insecurity. It is not the only case of wide- spread reliance on assumptions that hinder a useful understanding of the issue. This paper does not pretend to offer the ‘correct’ formula, but to iden- tify and help avoid the pitfalls.