Canning Papers

In March 1812 Simón Bolívar, the future liberator of South America, stood in the rubble of his hometown, Caracas. The Venezuelan capital had been levelled by an enormous earthquake and aftershock and as he led the rescue efforts, Bolívar announced: “If nature itself decides to oppose us, we will fight and force her to obey!” Two hundred years later, Latin American governments are still struggling to predict, mitigate and respond to natural disasters.

At first sight, the outlook for the pharmaceutical industry in Latin America is very good. Demand for medicines and proprietary drugs is set to grow strongly across the region. This reflects a series of important and underlying trends – some of them demographic – which are currently evident, and which can be expected to continue to play out over the next couple of decades.

Something new and unusual is happening here and there across Latin America’s farms and pastures. A wave of start-up companies is using technology in surprising new ways to innovate in what is a traditional and centuries-old industry. The examples are varied.

By the end of 2018, a very different political landscape could have emerged across Latin America and the Caribbean. We can expect to see reactions at the ballot box to a wide range issues such as: disillusionment with traditional ruling classes due to corruption; the election of a populist president in the US; huge reform programmes instigated by current regimes; and crime and violence trends that have not seen the improvement that incumbent governments would like.

The future of Latin America will be forged in its cities. It is within the region’s urban areas that the push and pull of social, economic, and demographic forces will play out most intensely over the next few decades.

No one disputes the fact that Odebrecht, one of the largest and most successful civil engineering groups in Brazil and Latin America, has paid bribes, or that it has done so on a massive scale. The disagreements now are about matters of detail, although the details themselves are critically important, including questions as to the number of politicians and other officials implicated. Also up for discussion is the much wider question of corporate governance and regulation, critically, the question as to what should be done to prevent other large companies from indulging in similar practices in future