Canning Papers

In a referendum on 23 June 2016, British voters gave a clear response to a simple question: ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ By 51.9% to 48.1% they voted ‘no’ – i.e. to leave. The vote led to short-term financial turbulence, political upheaval, a change of prime minister and a cabinet reshuffle. The new government, now led by Theresa May (of the Conservative Party), is committed to delivering the peoples’ will for ‘Brexit’ (British exit), but securing the terms of departure will be a complicated process.

The first year of the third term for the left-wing government led by President Evo Morales began, in 2014, in very different economic circumstances than had prevailed during its first two terms (2006-2013). Bolivia’s robust growth trajectory since 2006 largely had been driven by windfall income from strong demand and lofty export prices for its mainstay commodity exports – natural gas, zinc, tin, silver, and to a lesser extent oil seeds. Steadily rising fiscal earnings supported a continuous expansion of public spending, increased social welfare payments and rising real incomes from successive above-inflation annual wage increases, all of which further bolstered growth.

This report examines the potential economic benefits to Colombia of a peace deal aimed at bringing to an end the country’s lengthy internal conflict with left- wing guerrilla groups.

This is something of a bellwether year in the Latin America and Caribbean regions. In countries with presidential and general elections, the outcomes will signal not only the national but also the regional mood toward governments that have been in place throughout the oil-price shock and the drop in commodity prices. Countries such as Mexico and Bolivia, meanwhile, will use their polls this year to take the temperature of the electorate ahead of their presidential and general elections in the next few years. The standout contest will take place in Peru where huge uncertainty surrounds April’s presidential and congressional elections.

There is a growing consensus about the wide-ranging costs of corruption, with several non-government organisations (NGOs) incorporating anti-corruption measures into broader policy directives to reflect this far-reaching impact. In September 2015, the United Nations (UN) included the need to reduce corruption and bribery into its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), which it hopes will guide policymaking in both developing and developed economies. The issue is set to gain even more traction in 2016, when London hosts an international summit focusing on anti-corruption measures.

The possibilities for international businesses in the Cuban market have been greatly restricted by US sanctions and by the Cuban system of economic management since the early 1960s. Both of these are now undergoing a transformation. The restoration of US-Cuban diplomatic relations – announced on December 17th 2014 and eventually implemented in mid-2015 – represents a huge political breakthrough after 54 years, and has heralded some initial easing of sanctions regulations and expectations of further moves ahead. Within Cuba, a process of economic transformation, which began in response to the demise of the Soviet bloc in the early 1990s, has intensified under the presidency of Raúl Castro. The legal complexities, economic pressures and shifting political currents within the US and Cuba create both opportunities and difficulties for international businesses considering the Cuban market. This paper examines the current position and prospects.