The Epilogue to Petro's Colombia

Even before Petro was elected in 2022, many in Colombia began fearing the worst from the former guerrillero and his wide-ranging far-left agenda. People had seen the harm people with far more limited revolutionary credentials in their CV had done in the likes of Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia and others. But all evidence suggested that Petro was likely to have more bark than bite and that much of his lofty, revolutionary rhetoric would remain just that: words. 

Over the last 2 years, as it dawned on many that Petro and his allies would indeed not get much of their agenda implemented at all, fears started rising that he might try to remain in power, via legal or illegal means. At the very least, people feared, he would use all the tools at his disposal to ensure the continuity of the political left in power. But neither local, nor regional nor global precedent suggests that any of the conditions required for the continuity of his political project are in place. Colombia is a wonderful and unique place in many ways, but the laws of gravity, time and, yes, politics, apply here the same as anywhere else. What we are witnessing is, in fact, the Epilogue of the Petro Volume of Colombia’s history. 

But it is likely he will not go quietly. In the endgame, which is now unfolding before our eyes, four things can be expected: an escalation of incendiary rhetoric by the executive branch; an increase in power clashes between the different coequal branches of government; a rise in social tensions and political polarisation; and a sustained decline in security conditions. 

As all four developments unfold in parallel, we are seeing headlines that make it seem Colombia is on the verge of collapse. Understandably, many Colombians themselves, saddened by recent events and haunted by specters of the past, again fear the worst. But no. Colombia is not, and will not be, falling apart. The recent attempt to assassinate Senator Miguel Uribe, at only 38 a rising star of the Colombian political scene with a bright future ahead of him - as cowardly and despicable as it is - is not the beginning of a new cycle of political violence like that seen in the late 1980s. The bombings and shootings unfolding in Cauca and Valle del Cauca last week, and in Catatumbo a few weeks before that, are not a sign that Colombia is on the verge of being overrun by armed criminal thugs, as was the case in the 1990s. Nor are the false alarms of bomb threats in Bogotá in recent days and the resulting panic and fake news spreading on social media. 

Crucially, Gustavo Petro’s illegal attempt to sidestep the constitutionally sanctioned process to press ahead with his cherished popular (and populist) consultation are not a sign that we’ve embarked on a path towards autocracy or dictatorship as happened elsewhere in the region. 

As investors, businesspeople and others observe what is happening in Colombia, it is key to picture the image of a storm at sea, tumultuous and calamitous at the surface, but calm underneath the waves. Colombia’s economic, political and societal fundamentals will stay solid, it will continue to be a place with a plethora of business opportunities across all sectors of the economy, and its institutions and legal framework will withstand the current onslaught. The Consejo de Estados' temporary suspension of Petro’s decree calling for the consultation is a great example that the balance of power and system of checks and balances in Colombia will prevail.

So what will come next? It is still too early to place the bets for who will be the next president, although early tendencies suggest three things: first, as in 2022, the election is the political centre’s to lose. If a candidate at either side of the centre appears, who can effectively sway voters from the respective other side, that could be the winning formula, especially given Colombia’s two-round system. However, and second, the likelihood of that happening should not be overstated. In the current, highly polarized environment, it will be a challenge to develop a political platform with a conciliatory approach that is not seen as bland and boring by an electorate that’s being whipped up by extreme rhetoric at competing ends of the spectrum. Finally, as things stand today, in either scenario it is likely that we will see a Petrista candidate in the second round, where they will lose by a considerable margin.

As a result, in 2026 when the current government ends, we will witness the peaceful transition of power, and a new government will face the momentous task of rebuilding the economy, restoring the government’s finances and regaining investor confidence. Despite what the headlines and the panicky posts suggest, the country is not falling apart, nor will it. Colombia has weathered storms before - and emerged stronger. The path ahead won’t be easy, but the country’s institutions, society, and potential remain intact. What comes next isn’t collapse - it’s a reset. And with the right leadership and a little bit of luck, the next chapter in Colombia’s history could be the comeback story of the decade.