Guyanese voters went to the polls on 1 September to elect a president, vice president, and 65 members of the National Assembly. Incumbent Irfaan Ali of the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) secured reelection with a 30-point margin over Azruddin Mohamed of the We Invest in Nationhood (WIN) party, a newcomer to politics.
Despite some alleged irregularities, international observers endorsed the process, alleviating fears of a disputed result and legal challenges, which followed the 2020 elections.
Ali benefited from governing during an extraordinary economic boom. The economy grew at an average annual rate of 34% during his term, driven by offshore oil production, which surged to 640,000 barrels per day (bpd) by mid-2025. This enabled the PPP/C to invest heavily in infrastructure and social programs.
His second term is expected to bring even faster growth. Oil output could reach 2 million bpd by 2030, based on current projects in the Stabroek bloc, operated by an ExxonMobil-led consortium. Ali will maintain the status quo for offshore exploration and production in anticipation of even greater revenue after the ExxonMobil-led consortium fully recoups exploration costs in a couple of years. The government will also prioritize finalizing new contracts following the 2023 offshore bidding round to accelerate exploration outside Stabroek and exploiting gas reserves—including a push to monetizing offshore gas.
Ali’s victory was expected given the economic backdrop. His campaign also benefited from divisions within the traditional opposition. In 2023, the coalition between A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) and Alliance for Change (AFC) collapsed. APNU then suffered defections after its largest party, the People’s National Congress Reform (PNCR), re-elected Aubrey Norton, a polarizing figure, as president.
These internal divisions opened the door for Mohammed and WIN. The party’s performance—it captured a quarter of the total votes and won two of Guyana’s ten regions—is truly remarkable. Mohamed, the heir to one of Guyana’s largest business empires, was until recently best known for his ostentatious social media posts.
His decision to enter the race in May seems to have been highly personal. In June 2024, the US sanctioned Mohamed and his father for corruption and tax evasion linked to gold smuggling by their companies. In response, the Ali administration revoked their companies’ gold dealing license and began investigating Mohamed fils for evading taxes linked to the import of a Ferrari. The Mohameds had previously been strong supporters of the PPP/C.
Whatever his motivations, Mohamed’s success marks a sea change in Guyanese politics. Since independence from the UK in 1964, the PPP/C, which largely represents Indo-Guyanese, and the PNCR, whose base is the Afro-Guyanese population, have dominated the political system. Ethnic divisions thus marked the main fault line in politics.
The 2025 election results point to a new dynamic. WIN’s campaign offered next to nothing in terms of policies but leveled a clear critique of the PPP/C government: the oil-fueled boom had left the country’s marginalized populations behind. This message resonated among young, urban Afro-Guyanese and remote Amerindian communities alike.
Ali’s second term will bring new challenges. First, his government needs to accelerate the implementation of major public works. The flagship gas-to-energy project—which aims to cut power costs by 50% by piping natural gas from the Stabroek bloc onshore—has faced repeated delays. The country’s electricity grid also needs major upgrades to handle surging demand. This, in turn, will require institutional reforms to make private investment in infrastructure more attractive.
Another major challenge will be managing the threat from the Maduro government in Venezuela, Guyana’s increasingly hostile neighbor. Caracas claims the Essequibo region, which accounts for two-thirds of Guyanese territory, as well as much of its offshore economic zone. Increasingly isolated, Maduro will continue to engage in belligerent discourse and acts.
His goal is not a military occupation but rather to undermine stability in the disputed offshore area and Essequibo region, which is home to Guyana’s main mining projects. In addition to military and political tactics, the Maduro government will leverage its links to Venezuelan organized criminal groups, which are increasingly active in drug trafficking and gold smuggling in the border region, to this end.
A final challenge pertains to the new political climate. The implications of WIN’s rise are hard to anticipate. Mohamed—a political novice with alleged links to transnational crime—is presumptive leader of the opposition. How he will act in that role is anyone’s guess. What is clear is that the disillusionment his campaign seized on is real.
If Ali cannot demonstrate that oil wealth is benefiting all Guyanese, the seeds of populism and social unrest may grow in the years ahead.
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