Launch of the LatAm Outlook 2026
- Finton Hanks
In December, Canning House launched our annual flagship report, the LatAm Outlook 2026, at Bloomberg.
News
On Thursday, 13 November, Canning House convened the inaugural Argentina-UK Summit in partnership with DLA Piper, sponsored by Aisa Group. Through a full programme of speeches, panels, and networking, the Summit analysed the political, economic, and commercial aspects of the Argentina-UK relationship.
The proceedings were opened with welcoming remarks from Canning House, DLA Piper, and Aisa Group alongside His Majesty's Ambassador to Argentina, the Argentinian Ambassador to the UK, and the British government minister for Latin America. These speeches celebrated 200 years of diplomatic relations and the strong cultural bonds between the two countries. Looking forward, they highlighted the potential for growth in bilateral trade and key existing investments such as that recently made by Rio Tinto in Argentina.
The first panel of the day focused on international relations. The conversation began by analysing President Milei's relationship with President Trump; the speakers highlighted their ideological similarities and the importance of the US currency swap to Milei's midterm success. At the same time, Milei's notable free trade stance stands in contrast to protectionist US policies. The panel moved on by reflecting on the options facing Argentina regarding its relationship with China. It is clear that Milei continues to pursue a pragmatic policy, and Argentina does not want to be forced to choose sides between the US and China, given the high level of trade with both. Finally, the panellists predicted a swing to the centre right in next year's elections in the region.
The keynote speech of the Summit was delivered by the Rt Hon Kemi Badenoch MP, the Leader of the Conservative Party, and the Leader of the Opposition. She made clear her admiration for Milei and the success of his economic reforms, while recognising that the UK and Argentina were operating in different economic contexts. Badenoch proclaimed that the UK is in late-stage stasis and that her Conservative Party was willing to make the difficult decisions to provide budget responsibility. Her speech was followed by a video address by the governor of the Central Bank of Argentina, Santiago Bausili, in which he highlighted the fiscal successes of Milei's government.
The Global Head of Macroeconomic Research at JP Morgan, Luis Oganes, presented on the economic situation in Argentina. He started by highlighting the fact that President Milei's government has achieved a primary fiscal surplus, a laudable achievement. However, a key policy that has helped him do this is keeping the foreign exchange rate fixed. This is keeping life expensive for Argentines, and once this restriction is removed, the economy could suffer again. Argentina has experienced a financial recovery, but the danger has not passed.
The second panel of the Summit continued the economic analysis. Once again, panellists highlighted the successful fiscal management of President Milei in contrast to previous governments. In turn, this has restored the confidence of the markets, boosting the economy. Yet once more, the panellists highlighted the exchange rate difficulties and the fact that the long-term effects of President Milei's policies remain unclear. The panel was optimistic and questioned how the UK could confront its own fiscal struggles, concluding that decision makers needed to have honest conversations about the state of the country's finances.
The final session of the Summit focused on business and trade. The Minister for Trade, Sir Chris Bryant MP, delivered a video address highlighting the existing trading relationship between the UK and Argentina and his recent visit to Buenos Aires to deepen this bond. His Majesty’s Trade Commissioner for Latin America and the Caribbean – Designate, Amy Barklam, joined a fireside chat in which she explained her ambitions for managing the British trade strategy for Latin America.
The final panel investigated the Argentina-UK trading relationship and concluded that there is ample opportunity for expanding this relationship. The speakers singled out particular industries in which the UK can bring its expertise to Argentina. The market for green energy technology and fintech were two examples of this. Furthermore, we are seeing greater collaboration on infrastructure: Crossrail International (a UK government creation) has been contracted to develop Buenos Aires’ Subte. The speakers warned that Argentine bureaucracy can raise the cost of doing business in the country, but the opportunities in this market should be celebrated and seized.
The inaugural Argentina-UK Summit provided a valuable dialogue and explored the complex and deep relationship between the two countries. There remains much to learn from each other, and the future of this relationship looks bright.
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