Everything you need to know about Latin America, in one place

Everything you need to know about Latin America, in one place

The Canning House LatAm Outlook 2024 was launched at a conference on Tuesday 5 December, held at the InterContinental London Park Lane.

The new 100+ page report brings together insights from Canning House and its partners Itaú, Ipsos, Control Risks, the Department for Business and Trade (DBT), the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), International Crisis Group (ICG) and Michael Stott, Latin America editor at the Financial Times.

It is now available to read in full online, for free, via Canning House’s website. Read it here.

The report is structured around seven chapters, each offering a distinct outlook for Latin America: its place in the world, and its politics, economics, commerce, environment, society, and risk. At the launch conference, each chapter’s author presented their key takeaways for the region in 2024.

Lord Mountevans, Canning House’s Honorary President; and Ian Perrin, its Deputy CEO and COO, and editor of the LatAm Outlook 2024, opened proceedings, welcoming an audience of distinguished guests including diplomatic, political, business and civil society representatives.

The first presentation was delivered by Michael Stott, offering the Global Outlook for Latin America. He put forward his view that the “reasons to care” about the region on the global stage in the coming years have “multiplied,” with its world-leading food exports, abundant critical minerals, progress on renewable energy, centrality in climate change, and its ongoing significance in oil and gas.

Michael located the region in complex global dynamics including its relations with global powers like the United States, China and European Union; and considered the critical questions that must be answered if Latin America is to make the most of its huge opportunities – such as regional unity, long-term planning, and bringing citizens into economic success.

Next to the stage was Oliver Wack from Control Risks, author of the Political Outlook. He suggested five key political challenges facing Latin America in 2024 and beyond – governability, populism, fiscal complacency, geopolitical balance, and an “ESG paradox” amid high climate risk. Oliver set these in Latin America’s heterogeneous context of presidential and government approval, strength of democracy, macroeconomic environment, political leaning, and exposure to extreme climatic events like El Niño.

David Purkey from SEI’s Latin America Centre began his presentation by emphasizing that although little changes year-to-year in the region’s environmental outlook, it is critical to remain vigilant of trends including tree cover loss, fossil fuel production and demand for transition minerals. He then took a deep-dive into lithium, highlighting the opportunities and complications it presents for countries with abundant reserves of the in-demand material.

After a short break, DBT’s Cristina Irving Turner delved into the abundant commercial opportunities on offer in Latin America, particularly for British businesses, with trade and double taxation agreements contributing to rapid growth of relationships between the UK and the region. Cristina highlighted exciting opportunities in infrastructure, including sports, energy and other civil projects; financial and professional services, across fintech and consultancy; and tech, spanning industries from education to agriculture.

Andrés Pérez from Itaú, appearing via video, considered how Latin America's largest economies are set to develop following their recoveries from the Covid-19 pandemic. Following recent years' rising public debt and limited fiscal space, he predicted a resumption of downward pressure on bond credit ratings in several economies, leading to an economic cycle driven by monetary policy. Many central banks in the region reacted well to inflationary shock, and inflation has fallen considerably, he said, though not homogeneously across the region. Still, across Latin America, monetary policy rates are expected to decline next year, though will mostly remain quite high. Overall, Andrés' outlook for the region was positive - highlighting its resilience against US rate hikes.

The Risk Outlook was presented by Mariano de Alba from ICG (standing in for chapter author Ivan Briscoe, who was unable to present due to illness), centering on what he called Latin America’s “conflicting approaches” to violence and organised crime – between mano dura – an “iron fist” approach to security – and paz total – negotiations for “total peace” with paramilitary and criminal groups. Mariano emphasised that neither mano dura nor paz total can be discounted as an effective approach, with both still in a period of experimentation.

Finally, Jean-Christophe Salles undertook a wide-ranging review of social trends in Latin America’s six largest economies, highlighting the importance of people’s perceptions of the world around them. Top concerns included crime and violence, inflation, poverty and social inequality, and public services like education and healthcare; and he highlighted other trends including sliding support for democracy in Latin America, an aging population in the region, and the emergence of Generation Z as perhaps the “first global generation.”

A discussion amongst the speakers picked up many of these topics in more detail, including the implications of the recent election of Javier Milei in Argentina, and consideration of methods of determining “success” for the region. Subsequent questions and comments from the audience addressed Latin America’s role within supranational institutions, and the causes and impacts of violence and organised crime.

Canning House gives huge thanks to our partners Itaú, Ipsos, Control Risks, the Department for Business and Trade, the Stockholm Environment Institute, International Crisis Group and Michael Stott; Ian Perrin for his titanic effort in editing the LatAm Outlook 2024; and our audience for their engagement and interest.

Read the LatAm Outlook 2024