Brazil in 2026

With Brazil holding general elections on 4th October 2026, this discussion provided the perfect opportunity for participants to examine the implications of these elections and the broader landscape shaping Brazil’s future, with one of the country’s leading Brazil specialists.

Stott conveyed an unmistakable sense of optimism for 2026 in Brazil. 2025 was a positive year for Brazil geopolitically. In the face of US President Donald Trump’s mounting tariffs, President Lula stood firm to his principles and refused to negotiate on Brazil’s sovereignty or institutions. As a result, the US tariffs dropped from their original rates, and Trump is no longer campaigning for former President Jair Bolsonaro’s release.

This year, Brazil has proven itself to be a dependable and reliable diplomatic force in the region. Lula has remained committed to his view of a multipolar world and succeeded in maintaining relations with the USA and China. Furthermore, Brazil hosted COP30 this year, which focused on the implementation of climate policy. Despite Brazil’s continued economic reliance on oil extraction, the results of COP30 were viewed to be pragmatic and reasonably successful.

From an economic view, Brazil continues to perform reasonably well. Over 2025, it has enjoyed a 2.5% growth, with oil prices playing a large role. Global forecasts for 2026 are cooler, and Brazil’s economy is currently predicted to grow by 1.8% over the next year. Further reasons for optimism lie in the possibility of the EU-Mercosur deal, which could be confirmed after a long series of negotiations at the end of this year. Stott likewise reflected that markets will remain happy with a continuation of the status quo, which a Lula re-election could produce. One notable economic concern lies in Brazil’s fiscal imbalance, but in the context of deficits rising across the world, Brazil is no outlier.

Finally, the conversation covered the political future for Brazil. The presidential and congressional elections will take place in October 2026. Incumbent President Lula has announced that he will be running for re-election. Given Brazil’s historically left-wing voting habits, Stott was confident that Lula would triumph. Since former President Bolsonaro was handed a 27-year jail sentence for plotting a coup, the right in Brazil has remained fractured. The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, has been tipped as a key figure in the race, but he lacks Bolsonaro’s full endorsement, which has been given to the former President’s son. The speaker predicted that Congress will, however, remain right-leaning.