Geopolitical & Socioeconomic

Economic and Political Scenarios for Brazil in the Aftermath of the Petrobras Scandal

  • London Capital Club, 15 Abchurch Lane, London

Canning House is delighted to host a round table event in partnership with The Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation (CSFI)

Opening remarks will be given by our guest speaker Lucas de Aragão, Director of Arko Advice.

This will be followed by an open discussion chaired by Andrew Hilton, Director of CSFI and a former World Bank Economist.

About the event

Brazil remains South America's most influential country, an economic giant and one of the world's biggest democracies. Over the past few years Brazil has achieved significant socio-economic advances as it strives to raise millions out of poverty.

Yet. with unemployment rising in key sectors, poor fiscal results, above target inflation, trade balance deficit and low price of commodities, the government - and international financial institutions with an interest in the country -  will have to make some tough choices in President Dilma Rousseff’s second term.

Policy-making will have to be carried out in an increasingly fragmented political environment, in which the full support of the government’s long-standing allies is no longer guaranteed. Previous attempts at reform have often stalled in federal congress.

In 2015, the main challenge for Brazil is whether the new finance minister, Joaquím Levy will be given sufficient autonomy by President Dilma Rousseff to implement the necessary cuts to public spending and fiscal responsibility needed to balance the economy and restore growth. The eventual equilibrium between Levy and Rousseff; between pragmatism and dogma; and between macroeconomic rigour and full employment, wage increases and popular welfare programmes will determine the success of efforts to control inflation and return the economy to growth.

The situation is further complicated by Brazil’s largest ever scandal, involving Petrobras and a number of the country’s leading construction firms, which could severely impede vital infrastructure projects if the firms are blacklisted from state contracts and is made all the more difficult by the collapse in the oil price to levels that may threaten Petrobras’ ability to exploit is huge but expensive “pre-sal” offshore reserves.

Join us as we analyse what lies ahead for Brazil in 2015 and beyond.

This event is open to Canning House Corporate members. To RSVP please book below or email: [email protected] – you can also call 020 7811 5600 to RSVP.

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