The UN’s Next Secretary-General: A Test for Latin America?

The race to succeed António Guterres as the United Nations’ tenth secretary-general is entering a decisive phase. Seven candidates remain in contention following the withdrawal of former Chilean president Michelle Bachelet in September. The next secretary-general will take office on January 1, 2027, at a moment when the UN faces mounting geopolitical tensions, institutional paralysis, a deepening funding crisis, climate and health threats, as well as the evolving implications of artificial intelligence.

 Under Article 97 of the UN Charter, the secretary-general is appointed by the General Assembly following a recommendation from the Security Council. In practice, the process is shaped by extensive diplomacy and successive informal straw polls. A candidate ultimately needs at least nine Security Council votes and, crucially, must avoid a veto from any of the five permanent members: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Colombia and Panama sit on the Security Council this year as non-permanent members.

 The contest could produce two historic outcomes. While candidates can register at any time, as of early October, four of the seven candidates are women, raising the possibility that the UN could appoint its first-ever female secretary-general. Unwritten and informal regional rotation rules point towards Latin America and the Caribbean, which has produced only one secretary-general to date, Peru’s Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, who served from 1982 to 1991.

 In the latest straw poll held on September 29, Rebeca Grynspan, former vice president of Costa Rica, strengthened her position, increasing her “encourage” votes from nine to ten. Guyana’s UN ambassador and former foreign minister, Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett, remained in second place, with the Argentinean Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, slightly behind and regaining the third position in the latest round, both with eight encourage votes.

 For months, all candidates have been actively engaging with international stakeholders, with Canning House providing a forum for dialogue of their respective visions for the United Nations. Ms Grynspan has participated in roundtables at Canning House, both in her capacity as Secretary-General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development and as a candidate for the position, outlining a leadership vision that places particular emphasis on Latin America’s role, alongside stronger representation for women and smaller states. Canning House remains committed to providing an open platform to all candidates and looks forward to welcoming the next Secretary-General for a Canning Lecture.

 For Latin America and the Caribbean, the Secretary-General race is also a test of the region’s ability to coordinate diplomatically and translate shared interests into collective influence. The 81st UN General Assembly reflected broad agreement on the need to reform the institution, but less consensus on how governments should work together and position themselves in response to wider global and regional challenges. There is likewise broad support for the next Secretary-General to come from the region, but a common preference alone does not amount to a common strategy. Turning that preference into diplomatic influence will depend on sustained coordination, consensus-building and the ability to build support across the wider UN membership.

 The implications extend beyond the current selection process. Latin America has significant diplomatic, economic and institutional weight. Its ability to shape international outcomes depends on how effectively its governments can translate shared interests into coordinated positions.

The contest for secretary-general offers a tangible measure of the strength and effectiveness of regional diplomacy. For the United Nations, the decision carries significant implications amid an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape. A central challenge will be to reshape the organisation so that it better reflects the realities, challenges and threats of the 21st century. For Latin America and the Caribbean, meanwhile, the race presents an opportunity to determine whether closer regional coordination can translate into greater collective influence over the direction of the international agenda.

 Ultimately, the issue is not simply whether the region secures a prominent international position, but whether it can develop the mechanisms and consensus needed to use that position strategically.