First, the relationship between a large and complex emerging market on one side of the world, and a large and complex (but very different) region on the other has many facets. It is not sensible to consider just one of these facets in isolation from others. Second, the changes that are taking place will not con- veniently occur within the confines of one calendar year. In our analysis, we have tried to take a slightly longer view. Our conclusions should be as valid through 2015 as they are through 2014. Finally, the process of cause and effect is assumed to flow from China to Latin America.

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