Canning Insights

Farc attack damages Santos and guerrillas

Colombia’s President Juan Manuel Santos is resisting intense pressure to suspend the peace process with the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc). Renewing aerial bombing was his immediate response to the killing of 11 soldiers in a military patrol by Farc guerrillas on 14 April but as details of the savagery of the attack which violated the terms of the indefinite unilateral ceasefire declared by the Farc last December have come to light public indignation has mounted and Santos was compelled to deliver a strong message demanding that the Farc pick up the pace of negotiations and show a genuine commitment to peace. The Farc can risk pushing Santos but if the public attitude hardens against a peace deal then whatever is agreed in Cuba will be academic when it comes to an eventual referendum on the accord.

Saving the Petrossauro

The abiding memory of the VII Summit of the Americas in Panama from 10 to 11 April will be the presence of Cuba’s President Raúl Castro and the private meeting he held with his US peer Barack Obama. This historic event was not upstaged by the diplomatic spat between the US and Venezuela over the recent executive order declaring the country a threat to US national security and ordering sanctions against seven officials. Obama was lectured by several leaders present about past US interventions in the region, but he stressed his focus was on regional cooperation for future prosperity with equity (the theme of the Summit) which received little media coverage, although a series of accords on energy and education were struck.

Morales suffers electoral setback in Bolivia

President Evo Morales suffered one of his biggest electoral setbacks in the 29 March departmental and municipal elections since taking office in 2006. Exit polls indicate his ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) won in just four of Bolivia’s nine departments, with two going to a second round on 3 May and three to different opposition outfits. This is not only down from the six won in the last (2010) local elections but a far cry from the eight in which the MAS won a majority vote in the most recent (October 2014) general elections (losing only in Beni). While the MAS remains the only national political organisation, the defeat for the ruling party in its symbolic bastions of La Paz and El Alto, along with other strategic seats, is a wake-up call for Morales.

Astori the austere

Colombian peace process enters uncharted waters

Big gestures on either side have advanced the peace process between the Colombian government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc) guerrilla group further than any previous effort in the history of the 50-year armed conflict. The government negotiating team in Cuba struck a deal with Farc counterparts on 7 March to work together to clear anti-personnel landmines and other improvised explosives placed by the guerrillas. In return for what he described as “a hugely important step”, unprecedented indeed, President Juan Manuel Santos responded days later with three of his own gestures: he ordered the military to halt aerial bombing of Farc camps, the prelude to a bilateral ceasefire; he cancelled the extradition to the US of a guerrilla and a paramilitary; and he instructed the military to intensify attacks on other ‘illegal armed groups’.