Canning House | Latin American Weekly Report

29-10-2015: Latin American Weekly Report

LatinNews

29th Oct 2015

Macri in the lead ahead of second round

Few statistics in Argentina are reliable. Ahead of the 25 October first round election, opinion polls indicated that Daniel Scioli, the candidate of the ruling Frente para la Victoria (FPV, Kirchneristas) faction of the Partido Justicialista (PJ, Peronists), was almost ten points clear of his nearest rival, Mauricio Macri, from the centre-right Cambiemos coalition. In fact, the difference turned out to be a little over 2%. Hopes for an outright victory for the Kirchnerista candidate evaporated quickly on the evening of 25 October however. In the run-off due on 22 November, Macri now appears to have the edge.

With 97% of the votes counted, Scioli won 36.86%, narrowly ahead of Macri, on 34.33%. Sergio Massa, from the dissident Peronist grouping, Una Nueva Alternativa (UNA) came third with 21.34%. With outgoing President Cristina Fernández’s approval ratings still relatively high, at around 40%, the election was a serious, and unexpected, disappointment for Kirchneristas. While the results were greeted with near silence in Scioli’s camp, Macri’s supporters were jubilant. "What happened today will change politics in this country," Macri told the crowd outside his campaign headquarters.

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Petro's first 100 days: Peace takes priority

Gustavo Petro has served as President of Colombia for 100 days. In Canning House's latest blog, Dr Gwen Burnyeat and Dr Andrei Gómez-Suárez give their view on his tenure so far, including his focus on "Total Peace" and environmental protection, and ahead to the challenges he can expect going forward.

Despite low unrest, insurgency risks, growing political violence is a threat in Brazil

Though concerns from parts of Brazilian society about potential unrest taking place during the country's 7th September Independence Day celebrations did not materialise, the run-up to the 2nd October presidential elections have not been devoid of political violence, with security risks likely to continue into the coming years - write Mário Braga and Rodrigo Russo.

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More recent briefings & intelligence

Petro's first 100 days: Peace takes priority

Despite low unrest, insurgency risks, growing political violence is a threat in Brazil

Becoming a member at Canning House

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