Briefings & Intelligence

29-10-2015: Latin American Weekly Report

  • LatinNews

Macri in the lead ahead of second round

Few statistics in Argentina are reliable. Ahead of the 25 October first round election, opinion polls indicated that Daniel Scioli, the candidate of the ruling Frente para la Victoria (FPV, Kirchneristas) faction of the Partido Justicialista (PJ, Peronists), was almost ten points clear of his nearest rival, Mauricio Macri, from the centre-right Cambiemos coalition. In fact, the difference turned out to be a little over 2%. Hopes for an outright victory for the Kirchnerista candidate evaporated quickly on the evening of 25 October however. In the run-off due on 22 November, Macri now appears to have the edge.

With 97% of the votes counted, Scioli won 36.86%, narrowly ahead of Macri, on 34.33%. Sergio Massa, from the dissident Peronist grouping, Una Nueva Alternativa (UNA) came third with 21.34%. With outgoing President Cristina Fernández’s approval ratings still relatively high, at around 40%, the election was a serious, and unexpected, disappointment for Kirchneristas. While the results were greeted with near silence in Scioli’s camp, Macri’s supporters were jubilant. "What happened today will change politics in this country," Macri told the crowd outside his campaign headquarters.

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