Lenín Moreno came very close to ensuring that the Citizens’ Revolution crafted by President Rafael Correa survives beyond a decade in Ecuador. Moreno needed to win 40% of the vote in presidential elections on 19 February, with a 10-percentage-point lead over his closest rival, but he fell agonisingly short. By failing to capitalise on the fragmentation of the opposition, which presented seven separate presidential candidates, Moreno will have to contest a second round on 2 April. Not all of the opposition will coalesce around Guillermo Lasso, who finished in second place for the centre-right Movimiento Creo, but he should win enough additional support to make the run-off a tight affair.

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