President Juan Manuel Santos began his second four-year term in office on 7 August. He made some adjustments to his ministerial team, but reconfirmed Mauricio Cárdenas as his finance minister. Many business groups will applaud the decision: Colombia has kept strong market-friendly economic policies in place, and seems set to experience continuing real GDP growth of around 4%-5% per annum, coupled with low inflation (a combination that currently seems beyond the grasp of regional giants Brazil and Mexico). But looking at the economy from the perspective of the challenges posed by a possible future peace settlement shows that there is little room for complacency.

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