Understanding Colombia in 2026

2026 will be a significant year for Colombia as voters head to the polls on 31 May to decide their next President and Congress. Daniel Linsker, Partner and Regional Director at Control Risks, stressed that the outcome of the election is far from decided.

President Gustavo Petro was elected four years ago as the first democratic leftist government in Colombian history. Most in Colombia, Linsker explained, would say that Petro has achieved very few of his aims. However, the ruling party’s yet-to-be-chosen Presidential candidate may still triumph on the back of the government’s economic successes, particularly the minimum wage increase. Currently, there are two confirmed opposition candidates: Sergio Fajardo and Abelardo de La Espriella. The centre-right coalition is yet to select its candidate. In the same election, Linsker predicted, Congress is likely to fragment, with traditional parties suffering.

The election will take place against the backdrop of continuing security issues. Daniel explained that criminal gangs in the region are growing more sophisticated. Their profitability has been boosted by the increased price of gold and their control of illegal mining operations. This volatility will be a key talking point during the elections.

The prominence of drug-trafficking organisations in Colombia remains a key point of contention for the US administration. Presidents Petro and Trump are meeting on 3 February, and this issue will be a sticking point. Colombia has been a historic US ally, particularly on this issue, but Linsker highlighted ongoing tensions between the two leaders. The Colombian economy remains deeply connected to the US and enjoys a free trade agreement, which Trump might put pressure on for political gain. The US-Colombia relationship will loom large in the minds of voters, and its future will be decided by the next President.

Canning House extends its thanks to Daniel Linsker for providing an insightful and timely analysis of the state of Colombia ahead of the important elections.