LatAm Outlook 2025: A long-term view on Latin America’s key trends

LatAm Outlook 2025: A long-term view on Latin America’s key trends

Reading time: 9 mins approx.

On Tuesday 3 December, Canning House and its partners launched the LatAm Outlook 2025 – the latest edition of Canning House’s flagship, forward-looking annual report. Held at Prince Philip House in London, the launch conference welcomed a large audience of businesspeople, professionals, politicians, analysts, academics and others.

Produced in partnership with Itaú, Ipsos, Stockholm Environment Institute, the Department for Business and Trade, Control Risks and International Crisis Group, the LatAm Outlook 2025 covers seven chapters: Latin America’s place in the world, and its politics, economics, society, risk, environment and commerce.

Read the full 100+ page report

Following brief words of introduction from the report’s editor Ian Perrin (Canning House), Jeremy Browne, CEO of Canning House, welcomed guests to the conference with a speech exploring how the world – and Latin America’s place within it – has changed since the turn of the millennium. Looking to 2025, Jeremy’s words touched on topics including the return of Donald Trump to the White House; the increasing presence of China in the region; the significance of COP30 in Belém, Brazil; and deepening partnership with the United Kingdom, in commerce and besides. Jeremy hailed the opportunity to speak to the LatAm Outlook’s audience – “a room full of friends.”

The Baroness Chapman of Darlington addresses the LatAm Outlook launch conference

Following Jeremy’s words, The Baroness Chapman of Darlington, the UK’s Minister for Latin America and the Caribbean, delivered the conference’s keynote address. Since taking on her Ministerial role, Lady Chapman has visited Latin America a number of times, with her contribution at the launch conference her first major speech to a UK audience as Minister.

Lady Chapman described Latin America as a region – with its over-half-a-billion people and multi-trillion-dollar regional GDP – as one that is “too big to ignore.” She hailed UK-Latin America cooperation in business, infrastructure, trade agreements and other areas, while also stressing that “there is room to do so much more” to “turn opportunities into reality.”

Focusing next on where Latin America leads the world, Lady Chapman emphasised the importance placed on the protection and nurturing of the region’s immense and irreplaceable biodiversity, linking this to important opportunities for “sustainable growth” in both Latin America and the UK; and highlighted the recent launch of the UK-led Global Clean Power Alliance at the G20 in Brazil last month.

She then turned to some challenges facing Latin America: migration crises, the erosion of democracy, organised crime and drug trafficking… and how the UK can contribute to their solutions – on these and other areas, “there is always more to do together,” she said.

Finally, Lady Chapman hailed 200 years of shared history between the UK and Latin America, and how we can, together, build a “more prosperous, more sustainable, and more secure future for all.”

You can read a full transcript of Lady Chapman’s speech here

Next, Michael Stott, the Financial Times’ Latin America Editor, took to the stage to deliver his Global Outlook for Latin America – charting the region’s place in large-scale geopolitical trends. “The world is changing in quite a profound way,” he explained, “and quite a permanent way too.” The challenge for Latin America..? To find its place within that change. Amidst shifting geopolitical power relationships – rising middle powers, the expansion of the BRICS and the importance of the G20, China-US competition – Michael perceived a moment of opportunity for Latin America.

Michael Stott delivers the Global Outlook

The region, he said, benefits from its traditions of peaceful co-existence, respect for human rights and the environment, an abundance of key strategic resources, and other key factors marking it out as a credible partner in this complex global context. Latin America, he said, could “leverage its status as a green champion,” especially looking ahead to the critical COP30 in Belém; and presents opportunities for the UK and Europe, cutting through US-Chinese rivalry with emerging partnerships such as the CPTPP – which counts on Mexico, Chile, Peru and the UK as members.

Christian Perlingiere from Control Risks was next to the stage to present the Political Outlook, tackling each of Latin America’s six largest economies in turn. Christian perceived that Javier Milei’s economic policy is proving effective; but that Argentina’s president may face governability issues due to relations with labour unions. In Brazil, Christian sees 2025 as a “pre-election year,” but one full of uncertainty – despite elections being scheduled for 2026, no main candidates have been named. Chile, which will see elections in 2025, has seen its governing coalition fragmenting after unsuccessful attempts at constitutional reform, and an increasing feeling of insecurity amid rising organised crime groups.

Gustavo Petro’s difficulties with governability and legislative effectiveness, said Christian, leaves him vulnerable to challenging political manoeuvres and election strategies set begin as early as mid-2025. In Mexico, where Claudia Sheinbaum’s Morena party dominates across government, Christian described a possible “erosion of checks and balances;” while outside government, organised crime in the country continues as a major issue of concern. Finally, on Peru, Christian described a situation of “high political instability,” and one without a clear conclusion – as Keiko Fujimori, by a small margin the leading contender for elections in 2026, faces allegations of money laundering.

Next, David Purkey at the Stockholm Environment Institute presented the Environmental Outlook. He took a particular focus on the energy transition – a process he said “seems to be starting,” and in which Latin America, with the right approach, could assume a leadership role. The region, he explained, is starting from a good place: carbon intensity in its energy matrix is already low, with Chile a standout example of renewables adoption and fossil fuel reduction. Some face more of an uphill battle, though – David highlighted Mexico and Argentina as countries more dependent on fossil fuels, largely as a result of their large natural endowments in these resources.

The region faces other challenges too – emissions resulting from land use, particularly in deforestation for agriculture, can be high, and hydropower, a key energy source for several countries, is highly vulnerable to climatic conditions. Meanwhile, though, Latin America is also a key source of minerals critical to the energy transition. Lithium in particular, David explained, is a potential boon for Latin America, due to its abundance and cost-effective extraction in the “ABC” lithium triangle.

After a short break, Jean-Christophe Salles from Ipsos delivered the Social Outlook. He described a region which can be seen either as a “glass half-full” or “half-empty.” While, for example, Latin America has seen falling rates of poverty in several countries, emerging technologies and sustainable energy generation, its populations are also highly concerned with crime and violence – 48% of people put the issue in their top three worries, far above the global average; and corruption remains of concern.

Across a raft of other social issues – immigration, unemployment, inequality, education, health and more – Jean-Christophe explained how Latin America can look to a future in which it continues progressing; and in a complex world elsewhere, can perhaps reap opportunities. The region, though, needs to more effectively contain organised crime, a rising concern across all elements of society. Moreover, though climate change is a relatively low worry for most in Latin America, most people nevertheless believe that their own country should, still, be doing more to tackle this existential issue.

From the Department for Business and Trade, Caroline Wedmore gave the Commercial Outlook for Latin America, with a particular focus on the region’s relationships with the UK. Looking at how the UK can best support businesses to work in Latin America, Caroline hailed the upcoming accession of the UK to the CPTPP, which will take place on Sunday 15 December, as well as a wide range of regulatory and other agreements helping to smooth and boost trade and engagement.

Caroline Wedmore speaking on the Commercial Outlook

On specific countries, Caroline described how Brazil, as the UK’s largest trading partner in the region, continues to offer new investment pathways across a wide range of sectors; how Argentina’s current policy platform of deregulation is creating business opportunities there; complementary business potential in Mexico, in sectors like financial services, healthcare, infrastructure and events management; hydrogen projects in Chile; infrastructure partnerships with Peru; and an optimistic view of a variety of other commercial avenues across the region.

Andrés Pérez, appearing via video from Itaú, delivered the Economic Outlook. He began by illustrating how, through several pathways, the US dollar is likely to strengthen in the coming year: a result of a new phase of US protectionism under President-Elect Donald Trump; coming US immigration restrictions and their knock-on effects on labour markets; changes to public sector and taxation dynamics in the US; and the potential for a weakening influence of NATO and a rise in risk aversion.

Somewhat by contrast, Andrés then explained how Latin America’s currencies have broadly been performing poorly, with most countries in the region continuing on a cycle to tighten their monetary policy, with the current exception of Brazil. Fiscally, as Latin America, like much of the rest of the world, continues to deal with Covid-19-induced public debt increases, administrations across the region may be challenged to reduce their fiscal deficits, particularly in a climate of tighter global financial conditions and other headwinds.

Last to present, with the Risk Outlook, was Ivan Briscoe from International Crisis Group. Beginning with a look back at 2024, Ivan reflected on violence seen in Ecuador and on the incarceration of organised crime leaders in Mexico. He then took a close focus on the international illicit drug trade, in which a diversification of sources, products and routes has heightened and complicated risks arising from organised crime.

Looking across the region, Ivan described what he called “the lure of mano dura” – a trend in which, inspired by the policies espoused and enacted by President Nayib Bukele which, in the words of the Salvadoran president, have “imprisoned thousands, but freed millions” – other countries across Latin America may seek to replicate perceived successes of such hard-line security approaches.

The presenters then gathered on stage for an interaction Q&A session. Questions addressed a wide range of topics – the re-election of Donald Trump and various aspects of its potential impacts on the region, UK-Latin America trading relationships, migration, the environment and COP30, security and organised crime, intra-regional cooperation, European approaches to Latin America, and how to improve the UK’s commercial understanding of Latin America.

The LatAm Outlook 2025 panellists gathered on stage for a Q&A session

Finally, to close, Jeremy Browne asked each of the panellists for their one “thing to watch” in the region in 2025: they chose the outcome of Venezuela's current political crisis, boosting infrastructural development, the “make or break” COP30, La Nina and its knock-on effects for politics, and continued worries about organised crime.

Canning House thanks all the contributors to this year’s LatAm Outlook launch and report, including our institutional partners Itaú, Ipsos, Stockholm Environment Institute, the Department for Business and Trade, Control Risks and International Crisis Group.

You can read the full publication on our website: click here

Thanks also to Canning House’s Corporate and Individual Members, without whom the organisation’s work would not be possible. Learn more about Canning House Membership.

Lastly, Canning House thanks the audience at the LatAm Outlook 2025 launch for their engagement and interest.