Geopolitical & Socioeconomic

Brazil Briefing

  • Canning House, 126 Wigmore Street, London

In the midst of political and economic turmoil, Brazil is preparing for the most unpredictable presidential election in recent years. Former president Lula leads the polls in spite of having been convicted on corruption and money laundering charges; Supreme Court justice Joaquim Barbosa, who collected 10% of voter intention without having even declared his candidacy, recently announced he would not be joining the race.

In the midst of political and economic turmoil, Brazil is preparing for the most unpredictable presidential election in recent years. Former president Lula leads the polls in spite of having been convicted on corruption and money laundering charges; Supreme Court justice Joaquim Barbosa, who collected 10% of voter intention without having even declared his candidacy, recently announced he would not be joining the race.

Should Lula not be able to run, conservative candidate Jair Bolsonaro takes the lead, with Marina Silva of the Rede Sustentabilidade party, and Ciro Gomes, of the leftist PTD, in a technical tie for second place. A third of Lula's votes remain unattributed in this scenario, adding further uncertainty to an election which could see as many as 16 candidates running in the first round.

The concerns of the electorate will ultimately determine the result. Canning House is delighted to welcome Richard Lapper and Lucinda Elliott to discuss the key issues of the October elections, particularly crime, corruption, and the diminishing prospect of market-friendly reforms. Richard Lapper is an Associate Fellow of Chatham House and former Latin America editor for the Financial Times. Lucinda Elliott, currently based in Sao Paulo, writes for The Times. Alan Charlton, Canning House Trustee and former UK ambassador to Brazil, will chair the event.

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