Canning Papers

Venezuela – Where to from here?: Canning Papers

This paper examines the current state of play in Venezuela, starting with an overview of the economy, the political situation and current societal issues, with the input of freelance analyst Kate Parker and Francisco Toro of Caracas Chronicles. It then examines potential scenarios and their implications for the economy and the business operating environment. A near-term improvement in the internal situation is not considered likely. The authors anticipate authoritarian consolidation this year, ahead of a heavily-managed presidential election in late 2018, and little change in economic policy. Absent reform, the economy will remain in a critical condition, but with oil prices sufficiently stable to avert a complete collapse.

State Of Play: The Economy

Venezuela has become a byword for economic crisis in the Americas. No other country in the region has experienced political involution, institutional decay and economic collapse on a similar scale in recent memory. It is difficult to quantify the crisis with any degree of precision, because the central bank (BCV) and the finance ministry have all but ceased publishing macroeconomic data. Information comes out in dribs and drabs. The BCV reported an annual GDP contraction of 5.7% in 2015, with inflation of 181%. A BCV report shown to Reuters by an anonymous source on 20 December 2016 included a preliminary estimate that GDP had contracted by an eye-popping 18.6% year on year, with inflation purportedly running at 800%.

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Emerging opportunities in the Mexico-UK relationship

Canning Paper

Mexico and the UK have enjoyed more than two centuries of diplomatic relations and the future of their relationship remains bright. Mexico is the world's 12th largest economy. Its young and increasingly middle class population can offer subsantial opportunities to the world of trade and finance. At the same time, there are notable synergies between governments of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and President Claudia Sheinbaum.

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