While there is a broad consensus that peace is a positive prospect for the Colombian economy, there are wide-ranging views as to how the pacification process might play out in economic terms. The ‘peace dividend’ will not begin to flow automatically and there is an acknowledgement that capturing the dividend will require significant policy changes and targeted investment over a medium-term horizon. With the cost of peace front-loaded and the benefits back-loaded, the gains may take some years to materialise, and likely will be subject to setbacks along the way, not only political and economic, but also from the security side.

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