Summary

We argue between two scenarios: a bear scenario, in which the current difficulties drag on over the next few years, and a bull scenario, in which the economy re-inserts itself into the global financial system, attracting new investment inflows and recovering growth. We estimate that the likely outcome is the latter, more positive, scenario. However, these are still early days in a long election campaign and any optimism must be qualified. We give the bull scenario a 60-40 probability versus the bear one, and identify five key factors that may swing the pendulum back or forward between the two.

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